What do we mean by ‘uncertainty’? The need for a consistent wording about uncertainty assessment in hydrology     

Alberto Montanari 《水文研究》2007,21(6):841-845

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Catastrophic fragmentation and formation of families: Preliminary results from a new numerical model     

Paolo Paolicchi  Andrea Verlicchi  Alberto Cellino 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1993,57(1-2):49-56

Preliminary results of an improved version of the semiempirical model for catastrophic break up processes developed by Paolicchi et al., (1989) are presented. Among the several changes with respect to the old version, the most important seem to be related to the new treatment of gravitational effects, including self-compression and reaccumulation of fragments. In particular, the new model is able to analyze processes involving both cm-sized objects, like those studied by means of laboratory experiments, as well as much larger bodies, for which self-gravitational effects are dominant; moreover, in this latter case the model seems in principle adequate to describe with the same physics very different phenomena, like the formation of plausible asteroid families and the creation of single, rapidly spinning, objects. This fact, if confirmed by refined analyses, may be of high importance for our general understanding of asteroid collisional evolution.  相似文献   

First results from the Very Small Array – I. Observational methods     

Robert A. Watson  Pedro Carreira  Kieran Cleary  Rod D. Davies  Richard J. Davis  Clive Dickinson  Keith Grainge †  Carlos M. Gutiérrez  Michael P. Hobson  Michael E. Jones  Rüdiger Kneissl  Anthony Lasenby  Klaus Maisinger  Guy G. Pooley  Rafael Rebolo  José Alberto Rubiño-Martin ‡  Ben Rusholme §  Richard D. E. Saunders  Richard Savage  Paul F. Scott  An&#;e Slosar  Pedro J. Sosa Molina  Angela C. Taylor  David Titterington  Elizabeth Waldram  Althea Wilkinson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(4):1057-1065

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Modulation transfer function for solar telescopes and atmospheric turbulence     

Alberto Righini 《Solar physics》1972,25(1):242-251

Results on the structure coefficient of the temperature field present in the low atmosphere are presented. Measurements have been performed during the national Italian expedition for solar site testing in Isola delle Correnti (southern Sicily).Calculations have been carried out to show the effect of the observed thermal properties of the low atmosphere on telescope performances, with various assumptions as the structure at greater heights.  相似文献   

Ice-Core Study of the Link between Sea-Salt Aerosol,Sea-Ice Cover and Climate in the Antarctic Peninsula Area     

Alberto?J.?AristarainEmail author  Robert?J.?Delmas  Michel?Stievenard 《Climatic change》2004,67(1):63-86

Three ice cores and a set of snow pit samples collected on James Ross Island, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1979, 1981 and 1991 have been analyzed for water stable isotope content D or ¹⁸O (isotopic temperature) and major chemical species. A reliable and detailed chronological scale has been established first for the upper 24.5 m of water equivalent (1990–1943) where various data sets can be compared, then extended down to 59.5 m of water equivalent (1847) with the aid of seasonal variations and the sulphate peak reflecting the 1883 Krakatoa volcanic eruption. At James Ross Island, sea-salt aerosol is generally produced by ice-free marine surfaces during the summer months, although some winter sea-salt events have been observed. For the upper part of the core (1990–1943), correlations (positive or negative) were calculated between isotopic temperature, chloride content (a sea-salt indicator), sea-ice extent, regional atmospheric temperature changes and atmospheric circulation. The D and chloride content correlation was then extended back to 1847, making it possible to estimate decadal sea-ice cover fluctuations over the study period. Our findings suggest that ice-core records from James Ross Island reflect the recent warming and sea-ice decrease trends observed in the Antarctic Peninsula area from the mid-1940s.  相似文献   

Models of sub-grid variability in numerical simulations of solute transport in heterogeneous porous formations: three-dimensional flow and effect of pore-scale dispersion   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

A.?BellinEmail author  A. E.?Lawrence  Y.?Rubin 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2004,18(1):31-38

Modeling transport of contaminants in the earths subsurface relies on numerical solutions over grids with blocks larger than Darcys scale. The hydraulic conductivity is homogenized over the grid blocks and the plumes spreading is reduced as a consequence of the wiped-out variability. To compensate for this loss Rubin et al. (1999) proposed to augment mixing by block-effective dispersion coefficients, and Rubin et al. (2003) showed, by means of two dimensional simulations, how this concept can be applied in practice. In this paper, we present new solutions of the block-effective dispersion tensor for an axisymmetric exponential covariance model. In addition, we discuss the influence of pore-scale dispersion in both two- and three-dimensional applications.  相似文献   

利用遥感技术建立墨西哥热带地上生物量模型(英文)     

AGUIRRE-SALADO Carlos Arturo  TREVIO-GARZA Eduardo Javier  AGUIRRE-CALDERóN Oscar Alberto  JIMéNEZ-PéREZ Javier  GONZáLEZ-TAGLE Marco Aurelio  VALDEZ-LAZALDE José René  MIRANDA-ARAGóN Liliana  AGUIRRE-SALADO Alejandro Iván 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(4):669-680

Spatially-explicit estimation of aboveground biomass(AGB) plays an important role to generate action policies focused in climate change mitigation,since carbon(C) retained in the biomass is vital for regulating Earth’s temperature.This work estimates AGB using both chlorophyll(red,near infrared) and moisture(middle infrared) based normalized vegetation indices constructed with MCD43A4 MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and MOD44B vegetation continuous fields(VCF) data.The study area is located in San Luis Potosí,Mexico,a region that comprises a part of the upper limit of the intertropical zone.AGB estimations were made using both individual tree data from the National Forest Inventory of Mexico and allometric equations reported in scientific literature.Linear and nonlinear(expo-nential) models were fitted to find their predictive potential when using satellite spectral data as explanatory variables.Highly-significant correlations(p = 0.01) were found between all the explaining variables tested.NDVI62,linked to chlorophyll content and moisture stress,showed the highest correlation.The best model(nonlinear) showed an index of fit(Pseudo-r2) equal to 0.77 and a root mean square error equal to 26.00 Mg/ha using NDVI62 and VCF as explanatory variables.Validation correlation coefficients were similar for both models:lin-ear(r = 0.87**) and nonlinear(r = 0.86**).  相似文献   

A Double-Canyon Radiation Scheme for Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Models   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Sebastian Schubert  Susanne Grossman-Clarke  Alberto Martilli 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2012,145(3):439-468

We develop a double-canyon radiation scheme (DCEP) for urban canopy models embedded in mesoscale numerical models based on the Building Effect Parametrization (BEP). The new scheme calculates the incoming and outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation for roof, wall and ground surfaces for an urban street canyon characterized by its street and building width, canyon length, and the building height distribution. The scheme introduces the radiative interaction of two neighbouring urban canyons allowing the full inclusion of roofs into the radiation exchange both inside the canyon and with the sky. In contrast to BEP, we also treat direct and diffuse shortwave radiation from the sky independently, thus allowing calculation of the effective parameters representing the urban diffuse and direct shortwave radiation budget inside the mesoscale model. Furthermore, we close the energy balance of incoming longwave and diffuse shortwave radiation from the sky, so that the new scheme is physically more consistent than the BEP scheme. Sensitivity tests show that these modifications are important for urban regions with a large variety of building heights. The evaluation against data from the Basel Urban Boundary Layer Experiment indicates a good performance of the DCEP when coupled with the regional weather and climate model COSMO-CLM.  相似文献   

A new building energy model coupled with an urban canopy parameterization for urban climate simulations—part I. formulation, verification, and sensitivity analysis of the model   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Francisco Salamanca  Andrea Krpo  Alberto Martilli  Alain Clappier 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2010,99(3-4):331-344

The generation of heat in buildings, and the way this heat is exchanged with the exterior, plays an important role in urban climate. To analyze the impact on urban climate of a change in the urban structure, it is necessary to build and use a model capable of accounting for all the urban heat fluxes. In this contribution, a new building energy model (BEM) is developed and implemented in an urban canopy parameterization (UCP) for mesoscale models. The new model accounts for: the diffusion of heat through walls, roofs, and floors; natural ventilation; the radiation exchanged between indoor surfaces; the generation of heat due to occupants and equipments; and the consumption of energy due to air conditioning systems. The behavior of BEM is compared to other models used in the thermal analysis of buildings (CBS-MASS, BLAST, and TARP) and with another box-building model. Eventually, a sensitivity analysis of different parameters, as well as a study of the impact of BEM on the UCP is carried out. The validations indicate that BEM provides good estimates of the physical behavior of buildings and it is a step towards a modeling tool that can be an important support to urban planners.  相似文献   

Global change and relative sea level rise at Venice: what impact in term of flooding     

Laura Carbognin  Pietro Teatini  Alberto Tomasin  Luigi Tosi 《Climate Dynamics》2010,35(6):1039-1047

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) due to climate change and geodynamics represents the main threat for the survival of Venice, emerging today only 90 cm above the Northern Adriatic mean sea level (msl). The 25 cm RSLR occurred over the 20th century, consisting of about 12 cm of land subsidence and 13 cm of sea level rise, has increased the flood frequency by more than seven times with severe damages to the urban heritage. Reasonable forecasts of the RSLR expected to the century end must be investigated to assess the suitability of the Mo.S.E. project planned for the city safeguarding, i.e., the closure of the lagoon inlets by mobile barriers. Here we consider three RSLR scenarios as resulting from the past sea level rise recorded in the Northern Adriatic Sea, the IPCC mid-range A1B scenario, and the expected land subsidence. Available sea level measurements show that more than 5 decades are required to compute a meaningful eustatic trend, due to pseudo-cyclic 7–8 year long fluctuations. The period from 1890 to 2007 is characterized by an average rate of 0.12 ± 0.01 cm/year. We demonstrate that linear regression is the most suitable model to represent the eustatic process over these 117 year. Concerning subsidence, at present Venice is sinking due to natural causes at 0.05 cm/year. The RSLR is expected to range between 17 and 53 cm by 2100, and its repercussions in terms of flooding frequency are associated here to each scenario. In particular, the frequency of tides higher than 110 cm, i.e., the value above which the gates would close the lagoon to the sea, will increase from the nowadays 4 times per year to a range between 20 and 250. These projections provide a large spread of possible conditions concerning the survival of Venice, from a moderate nuisance to an intolerable aggression. Hence, complementary solutions to Mo.S.E. may well be investigated.  相似文献